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Faster pace of US monetary tightening may pressure emerging market currencies, says Fitch Ratings

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"Rapid monetary tightening in the US could weaken emerging market currencies and pose multiple policy risks"Faster pace of US monetary tightening may pressure emerging market  currencies, says Fitch Ratings

Currencies of emerging market (EM) nations could come under "significant depreciation pressure" in 2022 if US monetary policy is tightened at a faster clip, Fitch Ratings said in a note on February 21.

The ratings agency added that exchange rate pressures could force EMs into taking monetary policy decisions they would not make otherwise, with risks also emanating from an increase in the interest burden on their dollar-denominated debt.

"A number of EMs, such as Brazil, Chile, Poland, and Russia, have raised policy rates ahead of the US tightening cycle, reducing the potential for capital outflows. In past cycles, EM rate increases often lagged behind those in the US. Inflation in the US is also higher than it has been in decades, making real interest rates there less attractive," Fitch Ratings said.

"Nonetheless, we believe that there is still a risk that EM exchange rates could come under greater pressure this year as US monetary tightening progresses. An increase in global risk aversion could also increase capital flows into US assets."

Fitch said its EM exchange rate index has shown "a marked depreciation" against the US dollar in recent months, although this is largely due to two countries: Turkey and Argentina. Both, Fitch said, are vulnerable as their foreign-currency debt is large.

Fitch's EM exchange rate index weighs emerging economies by the value of their outstanding foreign-currency government debt.

US inflation is at 40-year high, forcing both markets to recalibrate their expectations of how much the central bank may raise interest rates by in 2022. Fitch expects the US federal funds rate target range to be raised by 100 basis points this year and by a similar amount in 2023.

In December 2021, it expected the US central bank to effect a 25-basis-point rate hike in 2022 and a 50-basis-point one in 2023.

An increase in foreign-currency debt burden for EMs due to a stronger greenback would come at a time when government debt has risen across the world to deal with the economic fallout of the pandemic. According to Fitch, the median EM foreign-currency government debt had risen to 31 percent of GDP by the end of 2021 from 18 percent in 2013.

"Policymakers in EMs may feel pressure to raise rates to attract capital inflows or to prevent depreciation that might threaten inflation targets, or financial stability where balance sheets are exposed to exchange-rate risk. This could weigh on growth outlooks, at least in the near term, and so complicate the task of fiscal consolidation for EMs in the wake of the pandemic," Fitch warned.

Read Also:- Green Hydrogen Policy | A giant leap for India’s climate aspirations

Green Hydrogen Policy | A giant leap for India’s climate aspirations

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The launch of the green hydrogen policy puts in place a sturdy foundation for developing a competitive green hydrogen sector in India — a transition well under way in most developed countries 

Green Hydrogen Policy | A giant leap for India's climate aspirations

India has become the 18th country to release a comprehensive green hydrogen policy — a watershed moment in India’s energy transition journey. The policy — envisaging a tangible strategy for developing a green hydrogen economy — sets in motion the process of decarbonisation of ‘hard to abate’ sectors such as steel, cement industries, and long-haul transportation.

This is a giant first step for India after its commitment to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2070, and revised renewable energy addition target of 500 GW which primarily aims at decarbonisation of the power sector. With its cross-sectoral applications and decarbonisation potential, green hydrogen is poised to become one of the most disruptive feedstock-cum-fuels that can catalyse India’s transition from oil and coal.

Incentives For A Green Hydrogen Economy

The launch of the green hydrogen policy puts in place a sturdy foundation for developing a competitive green hydrogen sector in India — a transition well underway in most developed countries. The definition for green hydrogen/green ammonia as products obtained through electrolysis of water using renewable electricity or from biomass is an essential step in categorising a low carbon pathway for their production. Besides the capital investment required for electrolysers, purchase of renewable energy (RE) accounts for a significant share in its total cost of production. Acknowledging this, the policy focuses on enabling access to low cost RE power for green hydrogen/ammonia production.

The policy offers a bouquet of incentives to green hydrogen producers for RE power procurement:


  • Wavier of interstate transmission system (ISTS) charges for 25 years for projects commissioned before June 30, 2025

  • Access to renewable energy through State utilities with 30 days of banking facility (mechanism to store and withdraw surplus renewable power)

  • Priority access to connectivity with the ISTS network.

Multiple modes for procuring RE for green hydrogen production have also been announced, including purchase of RE from power exchanges, and expedited access to open access mechanism. Distribution utilities have also been directed to procure and supply RE power to hydrogen and ammonia producers at nominal wheeling charges.

The policy also states that green hydrogen producers can avail land in solar parks across states for establishing their production units. They would also be allowed to establish bunkers near ports for use by the maritime sector and export.

To streamline the procurement process and ensure competitive pricing, the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) has been directed to consolidate demand from various sectors, and procure green hydrogen through the competitive bidding route.

Nuances Left Unaddressed

While most of the incentives announced in the policy cater to the supply side, the policy does not specify mechanisms or incentives for demand creation. Currently, the cost of grey hydrogen produced from natural gas is nearly one-fourth the cost of green hydrogen. Bulk consumers of hydrogen, especially industrial sectors including fertilisers, steel, chemicals, and refineries are unlikely to transition to low carbon alternatives because of the higher associated costs. With no incentives to reduce emissions, such industries might not find the transition viable for themselves. This, in turn, could lead to huge supply risks for first movers establishing green hydrogen/ammonia production plants.

Additionally, some of the measures announced under the policy such as renewable electricity through open access, banking, and wheeling are concurrent subjects that necessitate consensus and buy in from the states and Centre. For instance, the open access mechanism for RE procurement is already facing issues across certain states, where public sector electricity utilities are unwilling to let go of their monopoly in power distribution. Presently, 30-50 percent of the total landed cost of renewable power under this mechanism constitutes open access charges (sum of cross subsidy surcharge, additional surcharge, and standby charges). Green hydrogen, one fears, could also meet a similar fate that may thwart its growth potential.

While the first step towards developing a green hydrogen economy has now been taken, it is crucial that the Government of India retains this momentum with further policy initiatives to address key challenges. The policy must evolve to also address other key factors that are essential for establishing a green hydrogen economy, such as measures to establish a domestic value chain, and, most importantly, financing the transition cost.

Pawan Mulukutla is director, clean mobility & energy tech, and Anuraag Nallapaneni is senior program associate, hydrogen, at the World Resources Institute India. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.

Click Here:-  All about COVID waiting period in health insurance policies

All about COVID waiting period in health insurance policies

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 You have been meaning to buy a health insurance policy for yourself but kept putting it off for some reason. Now, the new COVID-19 wave strikes once again and the infection positivity rate shoots up in a flash.

All about COVID waiting period in health insurance policies

Just as you buy your health insurance in a state of panic, you happen to contract COVID-19 and need to be hospitalised . You take a breather thinking that at least your expenses will be covered, but your insurer tells you that you haven’t passed the waiting period as per your policy yet. Perplexed? Given the kind of caseload that India is reporting on a daily basis, this could actually be the story of anyone around you.

The past two years have firmly established the need for a health insurance policy. However, just purchasing a policy is not enough. Considering the aftermath of the past two waves we have witnessed, we ought to be better prepared this time by knowing the policy inside out. One of the most important conditions of your health plan is the waiting period, and this has become all the more important during COVID times. Let’s dive deeper to understand how the waiting period works - especially in the time of COVID - and how it impacts your coverage.

Also read: Getting treated for COVID-19 at home? Here’s how you must file your health insurance claim

What is waiting period?

The waiting period refers to a fixed period of time that the policyholder should serve after buying the policy before the actual coverage starts. The waiting period had always been applied to health insurance long before even the pandemic broke out. Typically, all insurers had waiting period in place for pre-existing conditions which ranged anywhere from 2-4 years. These conditions could be diabetes, hypertension, kidney-related ailments or any other disease for which you are on continued medication. Similarly, all policies have a wait period of 30 days for all claims except accidents. This is done to avoid anti-selection, i.e., somebody who knows that they would need hospitalization in the next few days may buy a policy for the claim. Avoiding anti-selection helps keep the price down for health insurance.

The COVID-19 outbreak has made it even more important that policyholders know and understand the waiting period in their policy or they’ll end up paying out of their pocket despite having health insurance. Essentially, waiting period is meant to shield the interest of the insurers against any fraud, collusion or misuse of insurance by any policyholder.

Duration of a waiting period

The duration of a waiting period varies from policy to policy or insurer to insurer. However, to help policyholders during the hour of need, insurance companies are coming up with low waiting periods. Most plans cover all illnesses including COVID-19 and excluding accidents after 30 days.

However, the third wave is bringing about a rapid surge in cases. In the context of COVID, insurers have brought down the waiting period to as low as 7-15 days. For instance, Digit General Insurance’s health insurance plans offers the lowest waiting period of 7 days for COVID coverage. This means that one can file a claim for hospitalisation due to COVID 7 days after the policy issuance. At a time when the infection rate continues to soar, it greatly helps to have a plan with a low waiting period like this.

Also read: Post-COVID-19 troubles: Why recovered people find higher exclusions, rise in insurance denials

Beyond COVID: Waiting period exceptions

As we have witnessed in the past, COVID can cause other health complications and lead to hospitalisation. They could be heart, liver or kidney-related ailments. So, you also need to factor in the waiting period for these as well before finalising your policy. In case you feel your waiting period is too high, you can reduce it by paying a little extra under select plans by opting for a waiting period waiver.

Apart from that, a fresh waiting period also applies in case you decide to enhance your sum assured at the time of renewal. Suppose you had an existing cover of Rs 10 lakh and opted for an additional Rs 5 lakh while renewing your policy. You’ll have to serve a fresh waiting period for the additional amount. You can, however, avail Rs 10 lakh without any waiting period. Similarly, if you need to port your policy, you can do so easily if you have served the waiting period of your current insurer. If not, you will have to serve it with your new insurer.

No matter what type of plan you choose, don’t forget to check all the details from your insurer. In case you don’t understand any term related to your waiting period, always double-check and then make an informed decision.

Click Here:-  Stocks slide, oil jumps as Russia orders troops to Ukraine regions

Stocks slide, oil jumps as Russia orders troops to Ukraine regions

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Oil jumped to a seven-year high, safe-havens rallied and U.S. stock futures dived on Tuesday as Europe's ..Stocks slide, oil jumps as Russia orders troops to Ukraine regions

Oil jumped to a seven-year high, safe-havens rallied and U.S. stock futures dived on Tuesday as Europe’s eastern flank stood on the brink of war after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops into breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine.

Brent crude futures rose 1.6% to $96.94, just off their overnight seven year high. S&P 500 futures fell 1.5% and Nasdaq futures fell 2.2%. Asian stocks were also down over half a percent, while Japan’s Nikkei skidded sharply.

The Russian rouble briefly touched an 18-month low in early Asia trade on Tuesday, after Russia’s MOEX equity index had fallen 10.5% the day before.

Spot gold, in contrast, hit a new six-month top of $1,911.56. [GOL/]

Putin on Monday recognised two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent and ordered the Russian army to launch what Moscow called a peacekeeping operation into the area, upping the ante in a crisis that could unleash a major war.

A Reuters witness saw columns of military vehicles including tanks early Tuesday on the outskirts of Donetsk, the capital of one of two breakaway regions, and Putin signed treaties with leaders of the two breakaway regions giving Russia the right to build military bases.

Washington and European capitals condemned the move, vowing new sanctions. Ukraine’s foreign minister said he had been assured of a ”resolute and united” response from the European Union.

But it was not immediately clear whether the Russian military action would be regarded by the West as the start of a full-scale invasion.

Following Russia’s latest move ”we are much closer to military intervention, which of course is going to drive a lot of the risk off sentiment in the markets, said Carlos Casanova, senior Asia economist at UBP, adding the short term volatility in markets caused by both geopolitical factors and the U.S. Federal Reserve was ’relentless’.

Casanova said the consequences would be higher oil prices, an equity sell off, and people flocking to safe haven assets like the Japanese yen.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan lost 0.66% in early trade on Tuesday and Japan’s Nikkei tumbled 1.6%.

In currency markets, the safe-haven yen rose as much as 0.2% in Asia to a nearly three-week high of 114.50 per dollar, before paring its gains.

The euro fell 0.1% to a one-week low of $1.1296

”In these circumstances, risk metrics are the driving force,” said NAB head of foreign exchange strategy, Ray Attrill.

The nerves also drove U.S. Treasury yields lower, with benchmark 10-year Treasury yields diving as much as 5.5 basis points to 1.8715%. Bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes also eased and the chance of a 50-bp hike next month fell below 1-in-5.

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said on Monday that she will assess incoming economic data over the next three weeks in deciding whether a half percentage point interest rate rise is needed at the central bank’s next meeting in March.

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