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Indian economy to overcome COVID losses only in FY35, says RBI report

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India fell into a short-lived technical recession in FY21. But while growth has rebounded since then, albeit on a low base, it will take more than a decade to overcome the losses incurred during the pandemic, according to the central bank's latest currency and finance reportIndian economy to overcome COVID losses only in FY35, says RBI report

It will take nearly 15 years for the Indian economy to make up for the losses it has incurred during the coronavirus pandemic, according to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) report on currency and finance for FY22.

"Taking the actual growth rate of -6.6 percent for 2020-21, 8.9 percent for 2021-22 and assuming growth rate of 7.2 percent for 2022-23, and 7.5 percent beyond that, India is expected to overcome COVID-19 losses in 2034-35," the report, released on April 29, said.

The report, whose theme this year is 'Revive and Reconstruct' in the context of nurturing a durable post-pandemic recovery and raising trend growth in the medium-term, does not reflect the views of the central bank itself but of the contributors, who are part of the RBI's Department of Economic and Policy Research.

The assumption of a growth rate of 7.5 percent from next year onwards is rather optimistic. The International Monetary Fund's latest World Economic Outlook report pegged India's growth rate for FY24 at 6.9 percent. Even the RBI's own Monetary Policy Report, released on April 8, said structural models indicated GDP growth in FY24 might be 6.3 percent.

Several independent economists see GDP growth next year, and possibly beyond that, closer to 6 percent. This would mean the losses incurred during the pandemic would take longer to overcome.

In monetary terms, the output losses assumed by the central bank's staff in its estimates are Rs 19.1 lakh crore for FY21, Rs 17.1 lakh crore for FY22 and Rs 16.4 lakh crore for FY23.

India's real GDP in FY22 is estimated to be Rs 147.54 lakh crore.

"The dividends of reforms initiated to counter the pre-COVID slowdown along with additional measures and initiatives during the pandemic will help launch the economy on a sustainable high growth path. The behavioural and technological changes brought about by the pandemic may usher in a new normal which would not necessarily ape the pre-pandemic trends but would be built on a more efficient, equitable, clean, and green foundation," the report added.

In the foreword to the report, Governor Shaktikanta Das said it was not sufficient to just stabilise the economy and return it to its pre-first wave path. The task at hand, according to Das, was to create a "virtuous cycle of greater opportunity" for entrepreneurs, businesses, and the fiscal authority.

Centre asks state-run companies to consider buying Russian oil assets

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Oil ministry also asked OVL, the overseas investment arm of Oil and Natural Gas Corp, to consider buying a 30% stake held by Exxon Mobile Corp, in the Sakhalin 1 project in Russia's Far Eastcrude oil

India has asked state-run energy companies to evaluate the possibility of buying European oil major BP's stake in sanctions-hit Russian firm Rosneft, two people familiar with the matter said.

BP has announced it is abandoning its 19.75% stake in Rosneft.

The oil ministry last week conveyed its intent to ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL), Indian Oil Corp., Bharat Petro Resources Ltd (BPRL), Hindustan Pertoleum's subsidiary Prize Petroleum Ltd, Oil India Ltd and GAIL (India) Ltd, the sources said.

Indian companies and the oil ministry did not respond to Reuters emails seeking comment.

While Western nations have imposed sanctions against Russia over the war in Ukraine, India has not explicitly condemned Moscow's actions there.

The world's third biggest oil importer and consumer, India imports about 85% of its 5 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil needs.

The call on Indian companies to explore buying the stake in Rosneft came after BP CEO Bernard Looney met Indian oil minister  in March.

BP declined to comment.

Oil ministry also asked OVL, the overseas investment arm of Oil and Natural Gas Corp, to consider buying a 30% stake held by Exxon Mobile Corp, in the Sakhalin 1 project in Russia's Far East. Exxon is the operator of the project.

OVL already holds a 20% stake in the project.

Exxon said on March 1 it would exit about $4 billion in assets and discontinue all its Russia operations, including Sakhalin 1.

OVL also holds 26% stake in Vankorneft, owner of the Venkor field in the West Siberian Basin.

Separately, a consortium of Oil India, IOC, and BPRL, the exploration arm of state refiner Bharat Petroleum Corp, holds a 23.9% stake in Vankorneft and a 29.9% stake in Taas-Yuryakh in east Siberia.

One of the sources said Indian companies hope to get stakes in Russian assets at discounted rates given the risk involved, dubbing the potential transactions "distress sales".

A second source said Indian companies needed to study the impact of sanctions on potential investments and yet to start a process of due diligence.

"The fear is that this investment could get stuck in Russia as sanctions might bar us from bringing equity oil and gas to India."

"Our effort has been to see how we can stabilise economic transactions, economic engagements with Russia in the current context ... There are of course constraints, there are sanctions by some countries, and we will have to kind of work through that," India's foreign ministry spokesperson Arindam Bagchi told a  conference.

Exxon said on Wednesday its Russian unit Exxon Neftegas Ltd has declared force majeure for its Sakhalin-1 operations due to sanctions on Russia that have made it increasingly difficult to ship crude to customers.

Also Read:- What will Elon Musk's ownership of Twitter mean for 'free speech' on the platform?

What will Elon Musk's ownership of Twitter mean for 'free speech' on the platform?

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In a surprise capitulation, the board of Twitter has announced it will support a takeover bid by Elon Musk, the world’s richest person. But is it in the public interest?

What will Elon Musk's ownership of Twitter mean for 'free speech' on the  platform? : Newsdrum

In a surprise capitulation, the board of Twitter has announced it will support a takeover bid by Elon Musk, the world’s richest person. But is it in the public interest?

Musk is offering US$54.20 a share. This values the company at US$44 billion (or A$61 billion) – making it one of the largest leveraged buyouts on record.

Morgan Stanley and other large financial institutions will lend him US$25.5 billion. Musk himself will put in around US$20 billion. This is about the size of a single bonus he is expected to receive from Tesla.

In a letter to the chair of Twitter, Musk claimed he would “unlock” Twitter’s “extraordinary potential” to be “the platform for free speech around the globe”.

But the idea that social media has the potential to represent an unbridled mode of public discourse is underpinned by an idealistic understanding that has surrounded social media technologies for some time.

In reality, Twitter being owned by one person, some of whose own tweets have been false, sexist, market-moving and arguably defamatory poses a risk to the platform’s future.

Can Twitter expect a total overhaul?

We see Musk’s latest move in a less-than-benign light, as it gives him unprecedented power and influence over Twitter. He has mused about making several potential changes to the platform, including:

reshuffling the current management, in which he says he doesn’t have confidence

adding an edit button on tweets

weakening the current content moderation approach - including through supporting temporary suspensions on users rather than outright bans, and

potentially moving to a “freemium” model similar to Spotify’s, whereby users can pay to avoid more intrusive advertisements.

Shortly after becoming Twitter’s largest individual shareholder earlier this month, Musk said “I don’t care about the economics at all”.

But the bankers who lent him US$25.5 billion to eventually acquire the platform probably do. Musk may come under pressure to lift Twitter’s profitability. He claims his top priority is free speech – but potential advertisers may not want their products featured next to an extremist rant.

In recent years, Twitter has implemented a range of governance and content moderation policies. For example, in 2020 it broadened its “definition of harm” to address COVID-19 content contradicting guidance from authoritative sources.

Twitter claims developments in its content moderation approach have been to “serve the public conversation” and address disinformation and misinformation. It also claims to respond to user experiences of abuse and general incivility users must navigate.

Taking a longer-term view, however, it seems Twitter’s bolstering of content moderation could be seen as an effort to save its reputation following extensive backlash.

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 Musk’s ‘town square’ idea doesn’t hold up

Regardless of Twitter’s motivations Musk has openly challenged the growing number of moderation tools employed by the platform.

He has even labelled Twitter a “de facto public square”. This statement appears naïve at best. As communications scholar and Microsoft researcher Tarleton Gillespie argues, the notion that social media platforms can operate as truly open spaces is fantasy, given how platforms must moderate content while also disavowing this process.

Gillespie goes on to suggest platforms are obliged to moderate, to protect users from their antagonists, to remove offensive, vile, or illegal content and to ensure they can present their best face to new users, advertisers, partners, and the public more generally. He says the critical challenge then “is exactly when, how, and why to intervene”.

Platforms such as Twitter can’t represent “town squares” – especially as, in Twitter’s case, only a small proportion of the town is using the service.

Public squares are implicitly and explicitly regulated through social behaviours associated with relations in public, backed by the capacity to defer to an authority to restore public order should disorder arise. In the case of a private business, which Twitter now is, the final say will largely default to Musk.

Even if Musk were to implement his own town square ideal, it would presumably be a particularly free-wheeling version.

Providing users with more leeway in what they can say might contribute to increased polarity and further coarsen discourse on the platform. But this would again discourage advertisers – which would be an issue under Twitter’s current economic model (wherein 90% of revenue comes from advertising).

Free speech (but for all?)

Twitter is considerably smaller than other major social media networks. However, research has found it does have a disproportionate influence as tweets can proliferate with speed and virality, spilling over to traditional media.

The viewpoints users are exposed to are determined by algorithms geared towards maximising exposure and clicks, rather than enriching users’ lives with thoughtful or interesting points of view.

Musk has suggested he may make Twitter’s algorithms open source. This would be a welcome increase in transparency. But once Twitter becomes a private company, how transparent it is about operations will largely be up to Musk’s sole discretion.

Ironically, Musk has accused Meta (previously Facebook) CEO Mark Zuckerberg of having too much control over public debate.

Yet Musk himself has a history of trying to stifle his critics’ points of view. There’s little to suggest his actions are truly to create an open and inclusive town square through Twitter — and less yet to suggest it will be in the public interest.


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